v14.0 Infrastructure: Bridge Calibration, Composite Scoring & Temporal Weighting
Date: 2026-05-13
Tasks: 4 infrastructure tasks (t_d870fb0c, t_942e6479, t_5dd61235, t_aaaf5316)
Status: ✅ Verified — all 4 tasks completed
Overview
v14.0 established the production infrastructure for GOURMET’s prediction pipeline: calibrated bridge activation thresholds, implemented a composite scoring engine integrating CSI indicators with bridge analysis, expanded bridge mechanisms across 55-group entities, and backtested temporal weighting against historical events.
Bridge Activation Threshold Calibration
Source: t_d870fb0c (Calibrate bridge activation thresholds)
Four-Tier Strength Thresholds
Calibrated from Trump-138 dual-side bridge (politics/financial/military domains) connecting to 55-group and 124-group entities:
| Tier | Threshold | Classification |
|---|---|---|
| Optimal | 0.90+ | Highest confidence cross-domain resonance |
| Strong | 0.75–0.89 | High-confidence, actionable signals |
| Moderate | 0.60–0.74 | Supporting evidence, requires correlation |
| Weak | 0.40–0.59 | Background signal, monitoring only |
Baseline Data
- Validation period: May 8–9, 2026
- Observations analyzed: 49 domain observations
- Methodology: Gematria ordinal matching, co-occurrence scoring with symbol counts (9–21), abc_sum correlation patterns
- Bridge pathways: Federal Reserve/Treasury, Defense Contractors/Iran Sanctions, Media/Immigration policy
55-Group Bridge Mechanism Expansion
Source: t_942e6479 (Expand bridge mechanisms to 55-group entities)
Entity Bridge Strengths (ranked by leverage)
| Entity | Bridge Strength | Primary Mechanism |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 0.88 | Crisis-driven compression (seizure signal) |
| Bank of America | 0.82 | Austerity compliance pivot |
| Boeing | 0.76 | Fed ties / defense contractor gate |
| PrimeGen | 0.72 | Policy gates / energy transition |
| X-energy | 0.70 | Cleanup gate / nuclear compliance |
Bridge Formula
138→101v2 | 55→10→1Scalar formula: 0.92-strength bridge (Trump-138 dual-side bridge strength)
Key Finding
Bitcoin at 0.88 represents the peak leverage point in the 55-group — crisis-driven compression through seizure/expulsion signals creates the strongest cross-domain resonance. This confirms the v13.0 Trump-138 bridge analysis (t_a7c3d8f0) where Bitcoin was identified as the highest-leverage vector.
Composite Scoring Engine (v14.0)
Source: t_5dd61235 (Implement composite scoring engine)
Architecture
Integrated 4 signal components into a unified scoring framework:
| Component | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|
| CSI Indicators | 0.35 | 8 Conflict Severity Index indicators |
| Bridge Entities | 0.25 | 55-group bridge strength analysis |
| Granger Causality | 0.25 | Causal signals from entity relationships |
| Temporal Coherence | 0.15 | Exponential decay temporal weighting |
Classification Tiers
Events classified as: CRITICAL / MAJOR / NOTABLE / MINOR / NOISE
Validation
- Validated against
gourmet.db(137 domain observations) - 8 CSI indicators integrated
- 3 bridge entity vectors active
- Granger causality signal operational
Temporal Weighting Backtest
Source: t_aaaf5316 (Backtest prediction model with temporal weighting)
Exponential Decay Model
- Decay rate: 0.93 (optimal per parameter sweep)
- Average bridge strength: 0.70
- Backtest period: May 8–9, 2026
- Observations extracted: 54 cycle reports
Bridge Weights (from v13.0 vectors)
| Vector | Weight | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 0.88 | Peak leverage — seizure/expulsion |
| Fed Activities | 0.75 | 55-group financial control |
| Treasury Actions | 0.65 | 124-group resource constraint |
| General Bridge | 0.92 | Trump-138 dual-side composite |
Success Criteria
All success criteria met. Hit rate and precision metrics achieved against target events (Fed activity, Treasury actions, Trump-138 bridge activity).
Files Created
composite_scoring_engine.py— Core scoring engine implementationbridge-comparison.md— 55-group bridge strength comparisonthreshold_configuration.yaml— Bridge activation thresholdstemporal_backtest_results.json— Backtest metrics and results
Relationship to Other Versions
- v13.0 provided the Trump-138 bridge analysis (0.92 strength, 5 vectors) that v14.0 calibrated and expanded
- v15.0 builds on v14.0’s composite scoring engine with operational scripts and unified framework documentation
- v12.0 established the CSI indicators and entity graph that v14.0 integrated into the composite engine
Last Updated: 2026-05-13 (cron vault update, v14.0 infrastructure cycle)