v24.0_004: Living Oracle — Real-Time Multi-Source Fusion System

Date: 2026-06-04 Version: v24.0 Task: t_v24_4 Model: openrouter/owl-alpha Status: COMPLETE

I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The Living Oracle is a real-time multi-source fusion system that combines all oracle streams — temporal geometry (Engine V6), entity mapping (v4), graph neural networks (Edge-Aware GNN), external feeds (news/social/macro), and VIX-54 market activation — into a single unified daily GOURMET Signal.

Key Results

Metric	Value
Backtest period	2024-01-01 to 2026-06-05 (887 days)
Avg Living Score	0.6285 (±0.0920)
Avg Confidence	0.2302
CRITICAL days	19
HIGH days	534
MODERATE days	334
Backtest time	220.3s

Source Contributions (Average)

Source	Avg Score	Weight (HIGH regime)
Temporal (V6)	0.8135	0.40
Entity (v4)	0.3425	0.20
GNN Ensemble	0.5894	0.15
External Feeds	0.5578	0.25
VIX-54	0.1448	boost

II. ARCHITECTURE

A. Multi-Source Fusion Pipeline

  ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
  │                    LIVING ORACLE V24                        │
  │                                                             │
  │  Temporal V6 ──┐                                            │
  │  (WHEN)        │    ┌──────────────────┐                    │
  │                ├───►│                  │                    │
  │  Entity v4  ──┤    │  Weighted Fusion  │──► GOURMET Signal │
  │  (WHO)        ├───►│  + Confidence     │    + Tier          │
  │                │    │  + CI Interval    │    + Regime        │
  │  GNN Ensemble─┤    │                  │                    │
  │  (HOW)        ├───►│  Weights by       │                    │
  │                │    │  Regime:          │                    │
  │  External ────┤    │  HIGH: 40/20/15/25│                    │
  │  (WHAT)       ├───►│  MOD:  50/20/10/20│                    │
  │                │    │  DORM: 60/15/05/20│                    │
  │  VIX-54 ──────┘    └──────────────────┘                    │
  │  (FIRE)                      │                              │
  │                              ▼                              │
  │                    ┌──────────────────┐                    │
  │                    │  Dashboard + CI   │                    │
  │                    │  95% Confidence   │                    │
  │                    └──────────────────┘                    │
  └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

B. Regime-Conditional Weights

The fusion weights shift based on detected regime:

Regime	Temporal	Entity	GNN	External
HIGH	0.40	0.20	0.15	0.25
MODERATE	0.50	0.20	0.10	0.20
DORMANT	0.60	0.15	0.05	0.20
ZERO	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

C. Confidence Interval

95% CI computed from source agreement: CI = living_score ± 1.96 * σ_sources / √n_sources

Where σ_sources is the standard deviation across the four source scores. High agreement = tighter CI. Low agreement = wider CI.

III. SOURCE DETAILS

A. Temporal Engine V6

25 windows (1d through 999d)
Adaptive regime weights (HIGH/MODERATE/DORMANT/ZERO)
3-layer scoring: Domain → Temporal → Regime+External
External data feeds integrated as domain-scoring inputs
Multi-scale window interactions (amplification windows modulate core)
Walk-forward σ: 0.0 (stable), Zero-folds: 0

B. Entity Oracle v4

60 entities (expanded from 40 in v23)
92 bridge pathways
8 domains: economic, political, military, religious, governance, elements, central banking, corporate/technology
Gematria-matched to core symbols (55, 100, 124, 138, 666)

C. GNN Ensemble

Edge-Aware SAGEConv with bridge feature propagation
40 entities, 58 edges, graph density 0.074
AUC on recent events: 0.971 (edge-aware), 0.949 (GraphSAGE baseline)
Ensemble (25% GNN + 75% correlation): AUC 0.947

D. External Feeds

News sentiment (NLP): -1 to +1
Social attention (volume): 0 to 1
Macro surprise (release vs expectations): -1 to +1
Graceful degradation when feeds unavailable

E. VIX-54 Market Activation

Based on window 55 (activation window) proximity to peak
Score decays linearly from cycle start
Boosts living score when > 0.5

IV. BACKTEST RESULTS

A. Score Distribution

Mean: 0.6285
Std: 0.0920
Regime: All 887 days in HIGH regime (V6 convergence = 100%)

B. Tier Distribution

Tier	Count	Pct
CRITICAL	19	2.1%
HIGH	534	60.2%
MODERATE	334	37.7%
LOW	0	0.0%
MINIMAL	0	0.0%

C. Top Convergences

Rank	Date	Score	Tier	Windows
1	2024-10-14	0.8343	CRITICAL	1, 6, 20, 40, 55, 56, 70, 111…
2	2024-10-15	0.8275	CRITICAL	1, 6, 20, 40, 55, 56, 70, 111…
3	2025-12-26	0.8263	CRITICAL	1, 6, 55, 100, 111, 136, 999
4	2025-12-31	0.8251	CRITICAL	1, 6, 20, 30, 40, 55, 70, 111…
5	2026-01-01	0.8227	CRITICAL	1, 6, 20, 30, 40, 55, 70, 111…
6	2024-12-06	0.8222	CRITICAL	1, 6, 30, 55, 56, 136, 555
7	2026-02-23	0.8195	CRITICAL	1, 6, 55, 124, 127, 136, 138
8	2024-10-17	0.8186	CRITICAL	1, 6, 20, 40, 55, 56, 70, 111…
9	2024-10-16	0.8185	CRITICAL	1, 6, 20, 40, 55, 56, 70, 111…
10	2024-10-18	0.8185	CRITICAL	1, 6, 20, 40, 55, 56, 70, 111…
11	2024-08-19	0.8184	CRITICAL	1, 6, 20, 55, 56, 70, 138
12	2026-01-02	0.8171	CRITICAL	1, 6, 20, 30, 40, 55, 56, 70…
13	2024-12-13	0.8114	CRITICAL	1, 6, 20, 55, 56, 70, 555, 888
14	2025-12-30	0.8106	CRITICAL	1, 6, 20, 30, 40, 55, 70, 111…
15	2024-08-20	0.8099	CRITICAL	1, 6, 20, 55, 56, 70, 138

D. CRITICAL Days Analysis

19 CRITICAL days detected in 887 days (2.1%).

Clusters:

August 2024 (3 days): windows 1,6,20,55,56,70,138
October 2024 (5 days): windows 1,6,20,40,55,56,70,111,124,127,136,333
December 2024 (2 days): windows 1,6,30,55,56,136,555 + 1,6,20,55,56,70,555,888
December 2025-January 2026 (4 days): windows 1,6,55,100,111,136,999 + 1,6,20,30,40,55,70,111,136,999
February 2026 (1 day): windows 1,6,55,124,127,136,138

V. CURRENT SIGNAL

Date: 2026-06-05 Score: 0.6363 Tier: HIGH Regime: HIGH Confidence: 0.3057 CI 95%: [0.5577, 0.7148]

Components

temporal: 0.7476
entity: 0.5608
gnn: 0.5871
external: 0.5480
vix54: 0.0727

Active Windows: [1, 6, 40, 55, 136, 555] Active Entities: [‘VIX (Volatility Index)’, ‘S&P 500 (SPY)’, ‘NATO Operations’, ‘Surah Ar-Rahman (Quran 55)’, ‘Mayon Volcano’, ‘SWIFT’] GNN: Edge-Aware GNN V24 (AUC 0.947008547008547)

VI. OUTPUT FILES

File	Description
`predictions/living_oracle_v24.py`	Main fusion engine
`predictions/living_oracle_backtest_v24.json`	Backtest summary
`predictions/living_oracle_daily_v24.json`	Daily dashboard data
`reports/v24_004_living_oracle_fusion.md`	This report

Generated: 2026-06-04 21:30:10 UTC | v24.0 | Task t_v24_4