v24.0_004: Living Oracle — Real-Time Multi-Source Fusion System
Date: 2026-06-04 Version: v24.0 Task: t_v24_4 Model: openrouter/owl-alpha Status: COMPLETE
I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Living Oracle is a real-time multi-source fusion system that combines all oracle streams — temporal geometry (Engine V6), entity mapping (v4), graph neural networks (Edge-Aware GNN), external feeds (news/social/macro), and VIX-54 market activation — into a single unified daily GOURMET Signal.
Key Results
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Backtest period | 2024-01-01 to 2026-06-05 (887 days) |
| Avg Living Score | 0.6285 (±0.0920) |
| Avg Confidence | 0.2302 |
| CRITICAL days | 19 |
| HIGH days | 534 |
| MODERATE days | 334 |
| Backtest time | 220.3s |
Source Contributions (Average)
| Source | Avg Score | Weight (HIGH regime) |
|---|---|---|
| Temporal (V6) | 0.8135 | 0.40 |
| Entity (v4) | 0.3425 | 0.20 |
| GNN Ensemble | 0.5894 | 0.15 |
| External Feeds | 0.5578 | 0.25 |
| VIX-54 | 0.1448 | boost |
II. ARCHITECTURE
A. Multi-Source Fusion Pipeline
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ LIVING ORACLE V24 │
│ │
│ Temporal V6 ──┐ │
│ (WHEN) │ ┌──────────────────┐ │
│ ├───►│ │ │
│ Entity v4 ──┤ │ Weighted Fusion │──► GOURMET Signal │
│ (WHO) ├───►│ + Confidence │ + Tier │
│ │ │ + CI Interval │ + Regime │
│ GNN Ensemble─┤ │ │ │
│ (HOW) ├───►│ Weights by │ │
│ │ │ Regime: │ │
│ External ────┤ │ HIGH: 40/20/15/25│ │
│ (WHAT) ├───►│ MOD: 50/20/10/20│ │
│ │ │ DORM: 60/15/05/20│ │
│ VIX-54 ──────┘ └──────────────────┘ │
│ (FIRE) │ │
│ ▼ │
│ ┌──────────────────┐ │
│ │ Dashboard + CI │ │
│ │ 95% Confidence │ │
│ └──────────────────┘ │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘B. Regime-Conditional Weights
The fusion weights shift based on detected regime:
| Regime | Temporal | Entity | GNN | External |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HIGH | 0.40 | 0.20 | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| MODERATE | 0.50 | 0.20 | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| DORMANT | 0.60 | 0.15 | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| ZERO | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
C. Confidence Interval
95% CI computed from source agreement: CI = living_score ± 1.96 * σ_sources / √n_sources
Where σ_sources is the standard deviation across the four source scores. High agreement = tighter CI. Low agreement = wider CI.
III. SOURCE DETAILS
A. Temporal Engine V6
- 25 windows (1d through 999d)
- Adaptive regime weights (HIGH/MODERATE/DORMANT/ZERO)
- 3-layer scoring: Domain → Temporal → Regime+External
- External data feeds integrated as domain-scoring inputs
- Multi-scale window interactions (amplification windows modulate core)
- Walk-forward σ: 0.0 (stable), Zero-folds: 0
B. Entity Oracle v4
- 60 entities (expanded from 40 in v23)
- 92 bridge pathways
- 8 domains: economic, political, military, religious, governance, elements, central banking, corporate/technology
- Gematria-matched to core symbols (55, 100, 124, 138, 666)
C. GNN Ensemble
- Edge-Aware SAGEConv with bridge feature propagation
- 40 entities, 58 edges, graph density 0.074
- AUC on recent events: 0.971 (edge-aware), 0.949 (GraphSAGE baseline)
- Ensemble (25% GNN + 75% correlation): AUC 0.947
D. External Feeds
- News sentiment (NLP): -1 to +1
- Social attention (volume): 0 to 1
- Macro surprise (release vs expectations): -1 to +1
- Graceful degradation when feeds unavailable
E. VIX-54 Market Activation
- Based on window 55 (activation window) proximity to peak
- Score decays linearly from cycle start
- Boosts living score when > 0.5
IV. BACKTEST RESULTS
A. Score Distribution
- Mean: 0.6285
- Std: 0.0920
- Regime: All 887 days in HIGH regime (V6 convergence = 100%)
B. Tier Distribution
| Tier | Count | Pct |
|---|---|---|
| CRITICAL | 19 | 2.1% |
| HIGH | 534 | 60.2% |
| MODERATE | 334 | 37.7% |
| LOW | 0 | 0.0% |
| MINIMAL | 0 | 0.0% |
C. Top Convergences
| Rank | Date | Score | Tier | Windows |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2024-10-14 | 0.8343 | CRITICAL | 1, 6, 20, 40, 55, 56, 70, 111… |
| 2 | 2024-10-15 | 0.8275 | CRITICAL | 1, 6, 20, 40, 55, 56, 70, 111… |
| 3 | 2025-12-26 | 0.8263 | CRITICAL | 1, 6, 55, 100, 111, 136, 999 |
| 4 | 2025-12-31 | 0.8251 | CRITICAL | 1, 6, 20, 30, 40, 55, 70, 111… |
| 5 | 2026-01-01 | 0.8227 | CRITICAL | 1, 6, 20, 30, 40, 55, 70, 111… |
| 6 | 2024-12-06 | 0.8222 | CRITICAL | 1, 6, 30, 55, 56, 136, 555 |
| 7 | 2026-02-23 | 0.8195 | CRITICAL | 1, 6, 55, 124, 127, 136, 138 |
| 8 | 2024-10-17 | 0.8186 | CRITICAL | 1, 6, 20, 40, 55, 56, 70, 111… |
| 9 | 2024-10-16 | 0.8185 | CRITICAL | 1, 6, 20, 40, 55, 56, 70, 111… |
| 10 | 2024-10-18 | 0.8185 | CRITICAL | 1, 6, 20, 40, 55, 56, 70, 111… |
| 11 | 2024-08-19 | 0.8184 | CRITICAL | 1, 6, 20, 55, 56, 70, 138 |
| 12 | 2026-01-02 | 0.8171 | CRITICAL | 1, 6, 20, 30, 40, 55, 56, 70… |
| 13 | 2024-12-13 | 0.8114 | CRITICAL | 1, 6, 20, 55, 56, 70, 555, 888 |
| 14 | 2025-12-30 | 0.8106 | CRITICAL | 1, 6, 20, 30, 40, 55, 70, 111… |
| 15 | 2024-08-20 | 0.8099 | CRITICAL | 1, 6, 20, 55, 56, 70, 138 |
D. CRITICAL Days Analysis
19 CRITICAL days detected in 887 days (2.1%).
Clusters:
- August 2024 (3 days): windows 1,6,20,55,56,70,138
- October 2024 (5 days): windows 1,6,20,40,55,56,70,111,124,127,136,333
- December 2024 (2 days): windows 1,6,30,55,56,136,555 + 1,6,20,55,56,70,555,888
- December 2025-January 2026 (4 days): windows 1,6,55,100,111,136,999 + 1,6,20,30,40,55,70,111,136,999
- February 2026 (1 day): windows 1,6,55,124,127,136,138
V. CURRENT SIGNAL
Date: 2026-06-05 Score: 0.6363 Tier: HIGH Regime: HIGH Confidence: 0.3057 CI 95%: [0.5577, 0.7148]
Components
- temporal: 0.7476
- entity: 0.5608
- gnn: 0.5871
- external: 0.5480
- vix54: 0.0727
Active Windows: [1, 6, 40, 55, 136, 555] Active Entities: [‘VIX (Volatility Index)’, ‘S&P 500 (SPY)’, ‘NATO Operations’, ‘Surah Ar-Rahman (Quran 55)’, ‘Mayon Volcano’, ‘SWIFT’] GNN: Edge-Aware GNN V24 (AUC 0.947008547008547)
VI. OUTPUT FILES
| File | Description |
|---|---|
predictions/living_oracle_v24.py | Main fusion engine |
predictions/living_oracle_backtest_v24.json | Backtest summary |
predictions/living_oracle_daily_v24.json | Daily dashboard data |
reports/v24_004_living_oracle_fusion.md | This report |
Generated: 2026-06-04 21:30:10 UTC | v24.0 | Task t_v24_4