v25.0_005: June 10-17 Convergence — Post-Event Analysis Framework

Date: June 5, 2026 Status: PENDING — Analysis to be completed by June 18, 2026 Source Task: t_7972a234

I. ANALYSIS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

[To be populated after June 17]

Overall Prediction Accuracy

Brier Score: [COMPUTE AFTER EVENT]
Entity Hit Rate: [COMPUTE AFTER EVENT] / 26 entities
Domain Coverage: [COMPUTE AFTER EVENT] / 8 domains
Living Score MAE: [COMPUTE AFTER EVENT]

II. DAILY PREDICTION vs ACTUAL

June 10, 2026

Metric	Predicted	Actual	Error
Living Score	0.86 (0.82-0.92)	[FILL]	[FILL]
Tier	CRITICAL	[FILL]	[FILL]
Active Entities	12+	[FILL]	[FILL]
Active Windows	10	[FILL]	[FILL]
Convergences	49	[FILL]	[FILL]

Key Events: [FILL] Entity Activations: [FILL] Misses: [FILL]

June 11, 2026

Metric	Predicted	Actual	Error
Living Score	0.84 (0.78-0.90)	[FILL]	[FILL]
Tier	CRITICAL	[FILL]	[FILL]
Active Entities	12+	[FILL]	[FILL]
Active Windows	10	[FILL]	[FILL]
Convergences	49	[FILL]	[FILL]

Key Events: [FILL] Entity Activations: [FILL] Misses: [FILL]

June 12, 2026

Metric	Predicted	Actual	Error
Living Score	0.82 (0.74-0.88)	[FILL]	[FILL]
Tier	CRITICAL	[FILL]	[FILL]
Active Entities	12+	[FILL]	[FILL]
Active Windows	10	[FILL]	[FILL]
Convergences	49	[FILL]	[FILL]

Key Events: [FILL] Entity Activations: [FILL] Misses: [FILL]

June 13, 2026

Metric	Predicted	Actual	Error
Living Score	0.78 (0.70-0.84)	[FILL]	[FILL]
Tier	CRITICAL	[FILL]	[FILL]
Active Entities	12+	[FILL]	[FILL]
Active Windows	8	[FILL]	[FILL]
Convergences	31	[FILL]	[FILL]

Key Events: [FILL] Entity Activations: [FILL] Misses: [FILL]

June 14, 2026

Metric	Predicted	Actual	Error
Living Score	0.72 (0.64-0.80)	[FILL]	[FILL]
Tier	CRITICAL	[FILL]	[FILL]
Active Entities	10+	[FILL]	[FILL]
Active Windows	6	[FILL]	[FILL]
Convergences	16	[FILL]	[FILL]

Key Events: [FILL] Entity Activations: [FILL] Misses: [FILL]

June 15, 2026

Metric	Predicted	Actual	Error
Living Score	0.65 (0.56-0.74)	[FILL]	[FILL]
Tier	CRITICAL	[FILL]	[FILL]
Active Entities	10+	[FILL]	[FILL]
Active Windows	6	[FILL]	[FILL]
Convergences	16	[FILL]	[FILL]

Key Events: [FILL] Entity Activations: [FILL] Misses: [FILL]

June 16, 2026

Metric	Predicted	Actual	Error
Living Score	0.58 (0.48-0.68)	[FILL]	[FILL]
Tier	CRITICAL	[FILL]	[FILL]
Active Entities	10+	[FILL]	[FILL]
Active Windows	6	[FILL]	[FILL]
Convergences	16	[FILL]	[FILL]

Key Events: [FILL] Entity Activations: [FILL] Misses: [FILL]

June 17, 2026

Metric	Predicted	Actual	Error
Living Score	0.50 (0.40-0.62)	[FILL]	[FILL]
Tier	CRITICAL	[FILL]	[FILL]
Active Entities	10+	[FILL]	[FILL]
Active Windows	5	[FILL]	[FILL]
Convergences	10	[FILL]	[FILL]

Key Events: [FILL] Entity Activations: [FILL] Misses: [FILL]

III. ENTITY ACTIVATION RESULTS

55d Window Entities

Entity	Predicted	Actual	Hit/Miss	Event Description
VIX	ACTIVE	[FILL]	[FILL]	[FILL]
S&P 500 (SPY)	ACTIVE	[FILL]	[FILL]	[FILL]
TSMC	ACTIVE	[FILL]	[FILL]	[FILL]
Apple	ACTIVE	[FILL]	[FILL]	[FILL]
NATO Operations	ACTIVE	[FILL]	[FILL]	[FILL]
Surah Ar-Rahman	ACTIVE	[FILL]	[FILL]	[FILL]
Mayon Volcano	ACTIVE	[FILL]	[FILL]	[FILL]
SWIFT	ACTIVE	[FILL]	[FILL]	[FILL]
Bitcoin (BTC)	ACTIVE	[FILL]	[FILL]	[FILL]
Crude Oil (WTI)	ACTIVE	[FILL]	[FILL]	[FILL]

124d Window Entities

Entity	Predicted	Actual	Hit/Miss	Event Description
Pope Leo XIV	ACTIVE	[FILL]	[FILL]	[FILL]
Iran	ACTIVE	[FILL]	[FILL]	[FILL]
Vatican	ACTIVE	[FILL]	[FILL]	[FILL]
Marco Rubio	ACTIVE	[FILL]	[FILL]	[FILL]
Hurricane Season	ACTIVE	[FILL]	[FILL]	[FILL]
African Union	ACTIVE	[FILL]	[FILL]	[FILL]
Microsoft	ACTIVE	[FILL]	[FILL]	[FILL]
WHO	ACTIVE	[FILL]	[FILL]	[FILL]
Temasek	ACTIVE	[FILL]	[FILL]	[FILL]
StJamesPlace	ACTIVE	[FILL]	[FILL]	[FILL]
Shopify	ACTIVE	[FILL]	[FILL]	[FILL]
DollarGeneral	ACTIVE	[FILL]	[FILL]	[FILL]

Bridge Entities

Entity	Predicted	Actual	Hit/Miss	Event Description
BRICS	ACTIVE	[FILL]	[FILL]	[FILL]
United Nations	ACTIVE	[FILL]	[FILL]	[FILL]
JohnsonJohnson	ACTIVE	[FILL]	[FILL]	[FILL]
ChinaConstruction	ACTIVE	[FILL]	[FILL]	[FILL]
BarrickGold	ACTIVE	[FILL]	[FILL]	[FILL]
BioNTech	ACTIVE	[FILL]	[FILL]	[FILL]

Hit Rate Summary

Total Predicted: 26 entities
Total Activated: [FILL]
Hit Rate: [FILL]%
Threshold: ≥60% to validate model
Result: [PASS/FAIL]

IV. DOMAIN COVERAGE RESULTS

Domain	Predicted Events	Actual Events	Coverage	Key Event
Economic	YES	[FILL]	[FILL]	[FILL]
Political	YES	[FILL]	[FILL]	[FILL]
Military	YES	[FILL]	[FILL]	[FILL]
Religious	YES	[FILL]	[FILL]	[FILL]
Elements	YES	[FILL]	[FILL]	[FILL]
Corporate/Tech	YES	[FILL]	[FILL]	[FILL]
Corporate/Finance	YES	[FILL]	[FILL]	[FILL]
Governance	YES	[FILL]	[FILL]	[FILL]

Domain Coverage Summary

Total Domains: 8
Domains with Events: [FILL]
Coverage: [FILL]%

V. WINDOW PHASE VALIDATION

V6 Engine vs Convergence Calendar

Window	V6 Prediction	Convergence Calendar	Actual	Winner
55d	ACTIVATION Jun 10	ACTIVATION Jun 10	[FILL]	[FILL]
124d	ACTIVATION Jun 10	ACTIVATION Jun 10	[FILL]	[FILL]
888d	LATE_CYCLE Jun 10	ACTIVATION Jun 12	[FILL]	[FILL]
999d	BUILD Jun 10	ACTIVATION Jun 13	[FILL]	[FILL]

Key Discrepancy: V6 engine shows 888d/999d NOT activating during June 10-17. Convergence calendar predicts they do. This is the primary testable divergence between the two models.

VI. BRIER SCORE COMPUTATION

Per-Day Brier Scores

Date	Predicted P	Actual O	(P-O)²
Jun 10	[FILL]	[FILL]	[FILL]
Jun 11	[FILL]	[FILL]	[FILL]
Jun 12	[FILL]	[FILL]	[FILL]
Jun 13	[FILL]	[FILL]	[FILL]
Jun 14	[FILL]	[FILL]	[FILL]
Jun 15	[FILL]	[FILL]	[FILL]
Jun 16	[FILL]	[FILL]	[FILL]
Jun 17	[FILL]	[FILL]	[FILL]

Brier Score = (1/8) * Σ(P-O)² = [FILL]

Interpretation:

0.00 = perfect prediction
0.25 = random prediction (binary, 50/50)
1.00 = perfectly wrong

v24 Baseline Brier Score: [FILL if available] v25 Brier Score: [FILL] Improvement: [FILL]

VII. TGN v25 PERFORMANCE

GNN Predictions During Convergence

Date	TGN Prediction	Actual	Error
Jun 10	[FILL]	[FILL]	[FILL]
Jun 11	[FILL]	[FILL]	[FILL]
Jun 12	[FILL]	[FILL]	[FILL]
Jun 13	[FILL]	[FILL]	[FILL]
Jun 14	[FILL]	[FILL]	[FILL]
Jun 15	[FILL]	[FILL]	[FILL]
Jun 16	[FILL]	[FILL]	[FILL]
Jun 17	[FILL]	[FILL]	[FILL]

TGN AUC During Convergence: [FILL] Comparison to Overall AUC (0.9137): [FILL]

VIII. EARTH-AIR BRIDGE OBSERVATIONS

Phase 5 Transcendent Tier (0.91) During Convergence

Date	Earth-Air Observation	Domain	Intensity
Jun 10	[FILL]	[FILL]	[FILL]
Jun 11	[FILL]	[FILL]	[FILL]
Jun 12	[FILL]	[FILL]	[FILL]
Jun 13	[FILL]	[FILL]	[FILL]
Jun 14	[FILL]	[FILL]	[FILL]
Jun 15	[FILL]	[FILL]	[FILL]
Jun 16	[FILL]	[FILL]	[FILL]
Jun 17	[FILL]	[FILL]	[FILL]

IX. CROSS-TRADITION RESONANCE

6-Framework Fusion During Convergence

Tradition	June 10-17 Resonance	CTS Contribution
Days of Creation	[FILL]	[FILL]
Seven Chakras	[FILL]	[FILL]
Classical Planets	[FILL]	[FILL]
Seven Churches	[FILL]	[FILL]
Seven Heavens	[FILL]	[FILL]
Seven Sefirot	[FILL]	[FILL]

Average CTS During Convergence: [FILL] Peak CTS Day: [FILL]

X. LESSONS LEARNED

What Worked

[FILL]

What Didn’t Work

[FILL]

Model Improvements for v25.1

[FILL]

Surprises

[FILL]

XI. STEWARDSHIP SUMMARY

Testable Claims Results

June 10-17 CRITICAL tier every day: [PASS/FAIL]
55d + 124d primary drivers: [PASS/FAIL]
26+ entities mobilized: [PASS/FAIL]
All 8 domains represented: [PASS/FAIL]
Convergence continues past June 17: [PASS/FAIL]
888d/999d activation: [PASS/FAIL — V6 says no, calendar says yes]

Falsifiability Assessment

[FILL: Overall assessment of whether the convergence model was falsified or validated]

Access is Obligation

Every prediction in this analysis should be testable by independent observers. All data sources, scoring methods, and entity activation criteria are documented in the main convergence report.

Analysis framework created: 2026-06-05 by t_7972a234 Analysis to be completed: 2026-06-18 Model: openrouter/owl-alpha Knowledge is commons. Access is obligation.

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