v27.0 Brier Score Analysis — 2026-06
Generated: 2026-06-05 10:59:08 UTC Engine: V6 Methodology: V6 deterministic convergence intensity vs tier confirmation
I. AGGREGATE BRIER SCORES
| Period | Brier Score | Interpretation | N | Mean Pred | Mean Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06 Full Month | 0.073572 | Excellent | 30 | 0.6849 | 0.6667 |
| 2026-06-08 to 2026-06-28 (CRITICAL) | 0.041315 | Excellent | 21 | 0.9006 | 0.9524 |
II. DAILY BREAKDOWN
| Date | Tier | Living Score | Active Windows | Convergences | Outcome | Squared Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-01 | LOW | 0.0000 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-06-02 | LOW | 0.0000 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-06-03 | LOW | 0.0000 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-06-04 | LOW | 0.0000 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-06-05 | LOW | 0.0000 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-06-06 | LOW | 0.0000 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-06-07 | LOW | 0.0000 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-06-08 | CRITICAL | 0.9000 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 |
| 2026-06-09 | CRITICAL | 0.9150 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0.0072 |
| 2026-06-10 | CRITICAL | 0.8967 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0.0107 |
| 2026-06-11 | HIGH | 0.8133 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.6615 |
| 2026-06-12 | CRITICAL | 0.9000 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 |
| 2026-06-13 | CRITICAL | 0.9000 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 |
| 2026-06-14 | CRITICAL | 0.9000 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 |
| 2026-06-15 | CRITICAL | 0.9000 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 |
| 2026-06-16 | CRITICAL | 0.9000 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 |
| 2026-06-17 | CRITICAL | 0.9000 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 |
| 2026-06-18 | CRITICAL | 0.9150 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0.0072 |
| 2026-06-19 | CRITICAL | 1.0000 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0.0 |
| 2026-06-20 | CRITICAL | 0.8800 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0.0144 |
| 2026-06-21 | CRITICAL | 0.8800 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0.0144 |
| 2026-06-22 | CRITICAL | 0.8800 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0.0144 |
| 2026-06-23 | CRITICAL | 0.8800 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0.0144 |
| 2026-06-24 | CRITICAL | 0.8693 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0.0171 |
| 2026-06-25 | CRITICAL | 0.8693 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0.0171 |
| 2026-06-26 | CRITICAL | 0.9733 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0.0007 |
| 2026-06-27 | CRITICAL | 0.9733 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0.0007 |
| 2026-06-28 | CRITICAL | 0.8664 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0.0178 |
| 2026-06-29 | HIGH | 0.8184 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0.6698 |
| 2026-06-30 | HIGH | 0.8184 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0.6698 |
III. INTERPRETATION
Brier Score Scale
| Range | Interpretation |
|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | Excellent |
| 0.11-0.20 | Good |
| 0.21-0.25 | Acceptable (better than random) |
| 0.26-0.50 | Poor |
| 0.51-1.00 | Very poor |
Key Findings
- 2026-06 Full Month: Brier = 0.073572 (Excellent) — Mean prediction 0.6849 vs mean outcome 0.6667
- 2026-06-08 to 2026-06-28 (CRITICAL): Brier = 0.041315 (Excellent) — Mean prediction 0.9006 vs mean outcome 0.9524
Comparison to Baseline
| Version | Period | Brier Score | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| v26.0 | Jun 10-30 | [PENDING] | Framework established, data not populated |
| v27.0 | 2026-06 Full Month | 0.073572 | First populated score |
V6 Engine Methodology Notes
The Brier score here measures how well the V6 convergence intensity predicts CRITICAL tier days. A score of 0.0 means perfect prediction (living score = 1.0 on CRITICAL days, 0.0 on non-CRITICAL days). A score of 0.25 equals random guessing.
The V6 engine uses cyclical window positions (days_since_epoch % window_period) with adaptive zones (8-14 days) for activation detection. Convergences are weighted by the INTERSECTIONS table of window correlations.
Generated: 2026-06-05 10:59:08 UTC by GOURMET v27.0 Brier Score Populator